Beer: Oden Over Durant is a No-Brainer
In the race to become the first overall selection in the 2007 NBA draft, Kevin Durant is getting lapped by Greg Oden.
Already a heavy favorite due to his lethal combination of size and skill, Oden has widened the gap between himself and Kevin Durant. If there were any doubts that Oden is the correct choice, they were likely cleared up last week in Orlando, Florida.
The Seattle Times was able to obtain a copy of a confidential league-distributed report detailing the workout results of many top prospects down in Orlando. The information contained in the report was alarming, as Kevin Durant's performance level fell far below expectations.
Since leaving Texas and declaring for the draft, there have been concerns about Kevin Durant's physique and his ability to handle the physical pounding he will receive on a nightly basis in the NBA. Those fears were exacerbated during the workout when Kevin Durant failed to lift 185 pounds even one time. He was the only player at the camp unable get the weight up at least once. As a point of comparison, Oregon guard Aaron Brooks (who measured in at just 5 feet 10 inches) was able to complete six reps.
Furthermore, Kevin Durant was outclassed by Oden in the other exercises. Oden posted a faster time in both the agility drill (11.67 seconds for Oden to 12.33 for Kevin Durant) and in the three-quarter sprint (3.27 seconds to 3.45). The one measurable attribute which cast Kevin Durant in a positive light was his wingspan. Kevin Durant had a 7-4 ¾ wingspan, second widest among prospects and a half-inch wider than Oden's. However, Oden had a superior vertical leap (34 inches to 33 ½). On the whole, Kevin Durant earned an extremely poor overall performance grade, ranking 78th out of the 80 prospects tested (the two prospected who graded out lower did so because they failed to complete all the drills.)
While you have to assume that the Trail Blazers were already leaning heavily towards selecting Oden, this has to make Portland's decision that much easier. While these "combine-type" workouts are certainly not overly important in projecting the future success of a prospect, it is the clear lack of preparation that the Kevin Durant put in prior to arriving in Orlando that has to raise red flags. As many NFL analysts have long pointed out, you can't judge a player solely by his combine numbers because there is never a point in any game where they put a bench press at 50 yard-line. However, with some dedicated training, Kevin Durant would have been able to significantly increase his performance in each category. Could it be that he has already started to enjoy the NBA lifestyle?
Nonetheless, even though Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard has said publicly since Portland won the pick that he would keep his options open; you have to assume they have been leaning towards Oden the entire time. While there is no denying that Kevin Durant is ultra-talented athlete, the fact remains that tall wing players are far more commonplace than legit centers. The true center is a dying breed in the NBA. Scan over any current NBA roster, they simply don't come along very often. If a franchise has a shot at landing a player of Oden's ilk, they would be crazy to let him slip through their grasp. Oden is a defensive force and at 7- 0, 270 pounds, he is a solid building block upon which you can build a successful franchise. Even if (a big "if") Kevin Durant lives up the incredible expectations some have predicted and becomes another T-Mac/Dirk/KG-type player – how many rings have those guys won? Compare that to the trophy cases' of guys likes Shaq, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Timmy D. The 2003-2004 Detroit Pistons remain the only non-Michael Jordan team to win a championship without an immortal big man since 1991.
And while some have pointed out that Oden's unassuming nature and mild-mannered personality should be considered a knock against him, I view them as a positive. In Oden, you will get a potentially dominant NBA superstar who apparently has no need for the trappings of fame. This means that it is far less likely that Oden will pull a Kobe Bryant and demand a trade if his teams struggles for a few seasons. It also seems that Oden will be more focused on becoming the best basketball player he can be, as opposed to attempting to become a global marketing icon.
All things considered, Oden is in a class by himself.
And that is why he will be the first player in the draft class of 2007 to shake David Stern's hand on June 28th.
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